A 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO sold for US$48.4 million. While it set a record, other Ferrari sales were down for 2018. Photos by Bloomberg
A 1963 Aston Martin DP215 sold for US$21.4 million, joining a Ferrari 250 GTO and a Duesenberg SSJ as the top three sellers among all lots in Monterey in 2018.
A 1958 Porsche 356A 1600 Super Speedster sold for US$368,000. Just like Ferraris, Porsche prices have generally stabilised from wild highs in recent years.
Last month in Monterey, California, a 1962 Ferrari 250 Gran Turismo Omologato (GTO) sold for US$48.4 million (RM200.86 million) — the highest auction price ever recorded for a single car. It is a sale completely unrelatable for a vast majority of car lovers.
However, that does not mean there are not practical lessons from the year’s biggest and most important sales. Anyone wanting to buy a classic or collectible car in the next 12 months should pay heed. Here are eight takeaways.
General auction prices for good cars are fair, and sales are strong
By many accounts, this year’s Monterey auctions were a success. Over three days of sales from six major auction houses — Bonhams, Gooding & Co, Mecum Auctions, RM Sotheby’s, Russo & Steele, and Worldwide Auctioneers — 849 cars sold for a total of US$371 million. That is a 13% increase in total sales over last year and 8% higher than classic car insurer Hagerty’s estimate for this year’s result. (Slow sales during the first part of the year seemed to indicate the Pebble auctions would be weak, too.)
Even more telling, the cars sold had a median price of US$95,200 (up US$5,000 from 2017) and a sell-through rate — the number of cars sold versus that of cars offered — of 61%, up from 59% last year.
The totals did not reach 2014’s high mark of US$428 million in sales, but the numbers look strong in comparison with those in recent years — most cars are selling for fair prices, without weird bubbles pushing numbers to extraordinary and irrational heights. It is healthy for everyone.
There is something good for sale at every price level, but you may pay a premium for six-figure cars
Big sellers like that 250 GTO grab headlines, but cars in the seven-figure price bracket are rarities and in high demand.
While 20% of the lots of entry-level collector vehicles (those costing less than US$25,000) sold above market value, 47% of the lots mid-market cars (US$25,000 to US$250,000) saw bids above market value, and the top of the market (US$250,000 and more) saw 54% of lots bid above market value. The takeaway: If you want one of the best cars, you will need to be willing to pay more than even the highest estimates.
There are bargains in the below US$20,000 range
While million-dollar Ferraris and Jaguars grab much attention, there is truly something for everyone when it comes to pricing. At Mecum, a 1977 Honda Civic CVCC cost US$22,000, and a darling 1956 Volkswagen Beetle built by well-known Hollywood builder George Barris cost just US$5,000. Even cheaper and cooler: a 1981 Alfa Romeo Spider and a 1985 Mercedes-Benz 380SE each sold for US$4,000 at the Mecum auction.
The Porsche and Ferrari markets have corrected
“Selling three cars for US$91.5 million can hide a lot of misses,” said Jonathan Klinger, who wrote the final auction report for Hagerty’s. (He was referring to the US$48.4 million Ferrari 250 GTO, a 1963 Aston Martin DP215 sold for US$21.4 million, and a 1935 Duesenberg SSJ sold for US$22 million.) “The US$1 million to US$10 million range underperformed this year, and Ferrari in particular did not fare well.”
What’s more, the sell-through rate for Ferrari was “a shocking” 53%, he said, down from 68% in 2017. Excluding the outlier 250 GTO, this year the average sale price for Ferraris dropped more than US$1 million, to US$1.3 million.
“Porsches corrected in 2016 and 2017, and Ferrari may be doing the same now, which we will be watching closely,” Klinger said. “Historically, Ferraris have been a leading indicator for the market.”
You will have to pay for the good stuff
Low mileage cars are selling very strongly, according to Hagerty data, but it has to be the right mileage.
“Low mileage” does not mean “no mileage” — it just means fewer miles recorded on a particular car relative to other cars of the same make and model. No mileage, on the other hand, means a car is unproven, with no interesting driving history to boot: “Collectors will pay eye-watering amounts for very specific examples” with the right driving pedigree, Klinger said, while refusing to even bid on similar models lacking pedigree.
To wit: Klinger described the US$112,000 sale price for a 1948 MG TC with 28,000 miles and three owners from new as stunningly high. Elsewhere, a 2002 BMW M5 with fewer than 500 miles on its odometer sold for US$176,000. Similar models of these well-known brands with more miles sell for thousands of dollars less.
The audience is smarter than ever
In an age where vehicle identification numbers, ownership history, and the most minute details of the most obscure parts are available to buyers willing to do their research, it is more incumbent than ever on the people trying to sell their cars to bring out the good stuff.
“You cannot fool a soul if what you have is mediocre,” said Stephen Serio, owner of Aston Martin of New England and the Bond Group, a consultant and brokerage for collectible cars. “I could have walked through a great many of the auction previews and said, ‘That’s been for sale for a year; that’s been for sale for two years; that’s a colour change because the dealer couldn’t sell it, and it needs to find a home.’”
In short: Today’s sophisticated buyers will not buy things just because they are in an auction. That said, if you have a proper estimate and reserve on your car, and it is very specific and rare, it will fetch a good price. The 1935 Duesenberg SSJ that sold for US$22 million at Gooding & Co, is an example of such a very specific, very rare car with a long, well-known and well-vetted history. Fifteen such pre-war icons landed among the top 25 American cars sold in Monterey this year, up from eight in 2017.
Auctions are not the best place to buy most production cars
“Auctions serve a great purpose for selling some types of cars at realistic numbers,” Serio said. “I say to people all the time, why would you buy something at an auction that is a production car? Unless it is a one-of-a-kind thing or something where you know everything about the car, why would you buy something where you don’t know who you are bidding against? It is not transparent; you can’t do a proper inspection.”
After all, it stands to reason that if you know you are bidding against a prominent billionaire, you may bow out of the competition before you would if you knew you were bidding against your buddy from down the street.
The term “production cars” means cars made for sale on the general market, not as a one-off or bespoke and limited editions. It includes such well-known collectibles as the Jaguar E-Type, Porsche 911 S and 911 Turbo and 550 Spyder, Dino Ferrari, and Mercedes 300 SL. They are important enough to be worth a lot of money — and significant enough for shady dealers to try to sell inferior examples of them at bloated prices.
Some people attending auctions have the false impression that if the auction company takes on a car to sell, it must be a good car. This is not necessarily the case. Fraud surrounding desirable production models such as the aforementioned does happen. Cars at even the best auction houses are not vetted to a high degree. It is the buyer’s responsibility, and not the auction house, to ensure the authenticity of the item at hand.
“It is [the] auction houses’ job to take what they believe are great examples, but depending on the auction company, they are just reiterating to bidders what the seller is telling them. It might be true,” Serio said. “I have seen captains of industry buy cars blind without inspection, because they are up on a stage. Then the cars get [send] home to them, and they will not even think of running off of the transporter.”
This is the most important takeaway of the Monterey auctions: Just because a car is offered by a fancy auction house does not mean it is a good car. No matter how high the catalogue estimate; no matter how pretty the catalogue photos.
“To be really jaded about it, a great many cars that go to auction can’t be sold privately — that is why they go to auction!” Serio said. “Sophisticated buyers will not buy stuff like that. Newbies will.” — Bloomberg