Friday 29 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on January 11, 2019

UEM Sunrise Bhd
(Jan 10, 75 sen)
Maintain buy at an unchanged fair value of RM1.00.
We maintained our “buy” recommendation on UEM Sunrise Bhd(UEMS) with an unchanged fair value of RM1.00 based on a 40% discount to its revalued net asset value. We made no changes to our earnings forecasts for financial year 2018-2020 (FY18-FY20).

 

The Australian Financial Review on Jan 8, 2018 reported that Malaysia’s UEM Sunrise is prepared for as much as a 10% default rate on the settlement of apartments in its A$330 million Melbourne Central Business District tower due to tough market conditions and weak prices of Australian properties. It quoted UEM Sunrise managing director and chief executive officer Anwar Syahrin Abdul Ajib as saying that “if we can get more than 90% (on the settlement), we will be more than happy”.

Despite the less-than-rosy outlook in Australia, UEM Sunrise said there are no defaults on its Melbourne apartment projects Aurora and Conservatory, and it is on track to settle the units which have been handed over. Aurora is fully sold while Conservatory has a take-up rate of 96% as at end of December 2018. Hence, we believe there is no impact to our FY18-FY20 earnings forecasts.

The settlement rate for Aurora has been encouraging considering that Aurora SP3 (137 completed units) and SP3A (70 completed units) which were handed over on Sept 10,2018 and Dec 3, 2018 separately, have settlement rates of 95% and 87%, respectively as at Dec 31,2018. No issue is expected to affect the continuation of this positive trend.

As for Conservatory, SP1 (338 completed units) was handed over and settled on Dec 14, 2018. In two weeks, UEM attained a settlement rate of 64%, collecting A$143.8 million. The proceeds will be used to settle the total project loan of A$180 million. The company anticipates to hand over and settle a further 50 units from the remaining 229 units (yet to be handed over and settled) to fully discharge its loan obligation for Conservatory.

The loan obligation for Aurora should not be a problem because in addition to the A$99.7 million collected plus the settlement of the remaining SP4 and SP5, UEM expects to collect A$120 million in September 2019 from the en bloc sale of 252 units of serviced apartment to Ascendas Australia Hotel Trust signed on Dec 3, 2015.

Meanwhile Aurora SP4 (489 units) and Aurora SP5 (281 units) are expected to be handed over and settled in May and October 2019 respectively, while the settlement of Conservatory SP2 (83 units) and SP3 (25 units) are expected to take place next month. — AmInvestment Bank, Jan 10

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