Tuesday morning: The exodus begins in the quiet wee hours

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Sectors of netizens have been incensed and galvanized by the Wednesday polling day challenge. Several initiatives have popped up or expanded in response. #PulangMengundi was trending early on Twitter as Malaysians scramble to find options home and it even came under a cyberattack. A group of friends managed to raise nearly RM200,000 to help voters travel home for GE14 in the social media initiative called #UndiRabu and has benefited more than 1,200 voters. Pulangmengundi.com, arranges carpool and voter subsidy matches, earlier reported that 2,200 people have been connected on their carpool app and RM18,000 has been donated to voters via their travel subsidy app. Other initiatives include one by the KL Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall that is renting buses to move voters home to key states. 

This “get out the vote” (GOTV) mood has also seen WhatsApp groups exchanging information about GE13 marginal constituencies (outside the urban sector) which need more voters to show up to challenge or maintain what was narrowly won (with under 5% of the vote). Although redelineation will have impacts on them, Undi Traffic analytics focus on about 30 marginal constituencies (GE13 results-wise) and several hot seats outside the Klang Valley.  

For Undi Traffic’s selected seats in the Peninsula, the count of marginals are led by BN (19), whilst PAS (7) and (PH) have fewer. The segments are as follows:

  • 32 marginal constituencies
  • 10 marginal constituencies that are also hot seats (contested by a senior politician or a notable name)
  • 14 hot seat constituencies


By coalition-party, they are:

  • For BN: 19 marginal seats. 8 hot-marginal seats: In Kedah (Pendang, Kulim-Bandar Baharu), Pahang (Bentong), Kuala Lumpur (Setiawangsa*, Titiwangsa*), and Johor (Segamat, Labis, Muar). 7 hot seats: In Kedah (Langkawi, Jerlun), Putrajaya (not analysed), Johor (Pagoh, Ayer Hitam, Simp. Renggam, Johor Bahru).
  • For PH: 6 marginal seats. 2 hot-marginal seats: in Selangor (Gombak), Kuala Lumpur (Lembah Pantai*). 7 hot seats: In Penang (Permatang Pauh), Perak (Teluk Intan - but lost in by-election to BN), Pahang (Raub, Indera Mahkota), Kuala Lumpur (Bandar Tun Razak*), Negeri Sembilan (Seremban), Johor (Bakri).
  • For PAS: 7 marginal seats: In Kelantan (Bachok, Pasir Puteh, Kuala Krai), Terengganu (Kuala Nerus), Perak (Bukit Gantang), Pahang (Temerloh), Selangor (Sepang*)

Note: *Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves. 

 

Undi Traffic Dashboard

Traffic Situation on Major Routes for Outstation Voters
For the major routes, those to the East Coast were more active than normal from about midnight and into the morning. The traffic out of Singapore was normal. Klang Valley traffic eases significantly.

Description: This summary provides insight into the traffic status for major long-distance routes for outstation voters and also the cross-Klang Valley situation. This describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up. For the time period described, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. Source: Estimates from Google. 

 

Average Traffic Situation By Coalition-Party Across Selected Hot & Marginal Seats
In the early hours of Tuesday, the traffic situation across coalition-party zones was rather sleepy and sub-typical, except for close to normal traffic in the BN marginal-cum-hot seats sector.

Description: This summary provides insight into when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians. Marginal-hot seats combine both criteria. 
Note: Based on GE13 outcomes. GE14 has redelineation which will also have an impact. Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google. 

 

Seats with High Traffic Activity 
The very early part of Tuesday, traffic was relatively quiet and sub-typical. Also, it is apparent that the hollowing out of traffic in the ex-Klang Valley town zones (E.g., Seremban, Alor Setar) may have started. Bentong features on hot traffic, with Tebrau and Raub trailing.

Description: This summary describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians.
Note: The marginal and hot seats for the key coalition-parties are ranked from highest traffic activity (journey time build-up) to lowest and the busiest seats are presented. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google. 

Key finding: Looking at about 200 routes across Peninsular Malaysia, we detect rising traffic (6-19% above typical) for Selangor-Pahang, Singapore-Johor, Perak-Kelantan, Pahang-Kelantan (in descending order) since 8.30pm until 9.30am today.

The very early part of Tuesday (past midnight and through to 930am) shows sub-typical traffic activity (indicated by live or current travel times as a ratio of typical). While things are quiet on the expected travel day for GE14 polling day, major uptick is seen for Bentong and there is also pick up in Tebrau and Raub.

 

Khor Yu Leng is an independent geo-data economist, assisted by Jeamme Chia. This data study is brought to you in collaboration with The Edge