The key positives in Asean for 2015 are sectors that have exposure to the US economy, earn in US dollars and benefit from Chinese tourists and government spending.

Weaker commodity prices will impact rural incomes in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, according to CIMB Research.

“We are bullish on Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, given the strength of their economies and resilience of corporate earnings. But we are cautious on Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, given further anticipated earnings disappointment,” CIMB said in its latest report.

The strengthening greenback and robust US economy will benefit exporters, such as service providers for the electronic sector and drug makers.

In the tourism sector, Chinese tourists are returning to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia after several incidents last year, such as the disappearance of flight MH370, kidnappings in Sabah and a coup in Thailand.

Malaysia is emulating Thailand by waiving visa fees. Key beneficiaries will be AirAsia, MINT and CENTEL.

The governments in the region will continue to spend on infrastructure. After slashing fuel subsidies, Indonesia has freed up IDR290 trillion, or 2.7% of GDP, to spend on infrastructure, education and healthcare.

“Our top picks are INTP, PTPP and WIKA. In Malaysia, we anticipate more progress for outstanding major infrastructure projects (total value RM117 billionn) in 2015, which will benefit Gamuda and Muhibbah,” CIMB said.

Infrastructure spending in Vietnam has jumped from 2% to 3% of GDP before 2013 to 5% to 6% currently, a shot in the arm for HT1, Vietnam’s leading cement company.

CIMB said, “We expect the Philippine government to step up spending as this is a pre-election year, boding well for Holcim Philippines and La Farge Republic.”

An unexpected rise in US interest rates or a global economic or financial shock (such as the Greek exit from the euro) could pull capital from emerging markets to safe havens. A weaker-than-expected China economy could also dampen Asean economies.

Meanwhile, 2015 consensus earnings expectations in Asean were weak in the last 12 months, with the Philippines and Singapore being the most resilient.

Earnings forecasts for Malaysia and Thailand are the most disappointing, having been revised down 11% and 18% respectively over the past 14 months.

“We expect the Philippines to be the most resilient, followed by Indonesia. But we foresee further earnings downgrades in Malaysia, Thailand and, possibly, Singapore,” CIMB said.