This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on June 11, 2018 - June 17, 2018
AMID the outcry over the Petroliam Nasional Bhd court case involving Sarawak oil and gas activities, one thing is clear. Both sides of the political divide in the state are united in defending its pursuit of more rights over its petroleum resources.
It shows that state nationalism remains an important factor ahead of the next state election due by 2021, says Prof James Chin, director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania in Australia.
“Both sides claim to be state nationalists, [so] it will be interesting to see how MA63 (Malaysia Agreement 1963) issues will be handled this coming two years. The Petronas suit will be a lightning rod for both sides,” says Chin, who tracks Sarawak political developments.
Expectations are high that the Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN) will break away to form an independent coalition that is friendly to Pakatan Harapan (PH).
The Edge understands that the Sarawak BN leadership is expected to meet on June 12 to discuss the possibility of leaving BN.
It may be a mere formality as Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the lead party in the state BN, had already announced its intention to review its position in the coalition.
The pressure is building for PBB in particular, led by Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg, who is also chief minister and seeking his own mandate in 2021.
Some observers note that Sarawak BN is facing a situation similar to that experienced by the federal BN after the 2008 general election, when Umno found itself propping up the coalition amid heavy losses for its key allies.
In the 14th general election, the state opposition in Sarawak won 12 parliamentary seats overall, including an unprecedented six rural seats. Its gains reduced the state BN’s haul from 25 to 19 seats.
Among those were P198 Puncak Borneo, which was wrested from PBB — the latter’s first parliamentary loss in 30 years.
An analysis by The Edge found that the six rural parliamentary seats won by the state PH have 14 state legislative assembly (or DUN) seats among them — 13 of which BN holds.
Note that the six parliamentary seats that fell included some spectacular margin swings of up to 46 percentage points (see table).
Another seven seats retained by BN saw substantial erosion of support as the margin of victory fell by at least 10 percentage points.
These seven have 19 DUN seats between them, all currently held by BN representatives.
The takeaway: at least 32 DUN seats will see tight contests at the very least come 2021.
Of that figure, 13 can be seen as “red seats” — in real danger of being lost to the state PH. The other 19, which saw an erosion of support, could arguably be pegged as “grey seats”.
Dayak support slipping
The state BN’s setback in GE14 is primarily due to a drop in support from the Dayak community. The joke is that the state PH’s gains were thanks to a “Bidayuh tsunami” in key constituencies.
“I fully agree [that] it was largely a Bidayuh swing as this community is more urbanised and more economically well off compared with many of the other Dayak groups,” says Bridget Welsh, associate professor of political science at the John Cabot University.
But it was not only the Bidayuhs — Dayak support has been slipping for a long time due to urbanisation as well as weakened Dayak representation in the state, she adds.
Political analyst Chin believes that the Dayak heartlands will be among the key battlegrounds for both sides going forward, as well as the Muslim and Melanau-majority areas.
Dayak is a loose umbrella term for Borneo native peoples that comprise hundreds of sub-ethnic groups.
The Sarawak state assembly has 82 DUN seats — 28 Malay/Melanau-majority, 22 Iban-majority, 15 Chinese-majority, seven Bidayuh-majority, five Orang Ulu-majority and five with mixed demographics.
Of the 13 red seats identified by The Edge’s analysis, six are Iban-majority, five Bidayuh-majority and two are predominantly Malay/Melanau.
As for the 19 grey seats, 12 are Malay/Melanau-majority, two are Bidayuh-majority, two are Iban-majority and three are mixed.
“The Chinese areas are gone (to PH), 80% of the Dayak seats are competitive while the Muslim/Melanau seats are probably 70:30 in favour of PBB if it can convince [these voters] that it can protect their interests,” opines Chin.
The Taib question
For the first time in memory, the state opposition has a “real possibility” of capturing Sarawak in 2021, says Welsh.
But that depends on how well the federal PH government performs and the signals it sends on the seriousness of its reforms, she adds.
Chin concurs, saying that the federal PH government’s report card will be a big issue in 2021, as will be state nationalism and MA63.
“[But] Abang Johari does not have charisma like [Tan Sri] Adenan [Satem], so that’s problematic,” he adds, highlighting that state governor Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud remains the elephant in the room.
Taib was chief minister for 33 years before making way for Adenan in 2014. During his tenure, there were allegations of corruption, including from whistle-blower website Sarawak Report.
“The bigger issue is Taib. If the PH government does an investigation before 2021, then maybe PBB seats will be in danger,” says Chin.
Unlike the rest of Malaysia, Sarawak only voted for its parliamentary seats on May 9.
Using GE14 to gauge the political pulse in Sarawak requires caution as national — and not local — issues had gained prominence then.
Also, in 2016, the charismatic leadership of Adenan, the then PBB president, was crucial in the state BN’s landslide victory, capturing 72 of the total 82 seats.
However, Adenan died in January last year and his popularity was clearly missed in GE14. Disunity in the Sarawak BN also led to internal sabotage during the campaign.
“Abang Johari was seen as more of a [former prime minister Datuk Seri] Najib [Razak] follower and not his own man,” says Welsh.
To her, the GE14 results show that the state opposition was able to make the case that Sarawak’s best interests lie with PH.
“I feel that state nationalism was still important, but Abang Johari is no Adenan and thus, [was] not able to hold the frame of state nationalism,” Welsh tells The Edge.
Pressure on PBB
If the Sarawak BN does break away and form a standalone coalition, the emerging argument is that a local coalition could run the state without kow-towing to the federal side.
That will turn the spotlight on Sabah, where one such arrangement exists under Parti Warisan Sabah.
For PH, lifting state opposition leaders to the federal Cabinet would be critical to increase its visibility, says Chin.
Some observers have tipped state PKR chief Baru Bian and state PH chair Chong Chieng Jen to be appointed to the Cabinet.
Another name that has surfaced is PKR’s Ali Biju, the Saratok MP, who said last week that the Sarawak PH could have three or four Cabinet members.
“Branding is as important as money politics. Now, with PH in federal power and Baru [expected to be] in the Cabinet, PH will do very well in the next election in the Dayak areas,” says Chin.
The key for PH to win the state will be the PBB seats, he adds.
“PBB has about 60%. If a quarter falls, plus the Chinese areas and three-quarters of the Dayak seats, then the Sarawak BN [or a new coalition] will be gone,” says Chin.
On the other hand, the incumbent coalition needs to rebrand itself to recover support if it hopes to remain in power.
Also at stake is the decades-long grip on state leadership by the Malay/Melanau bloc leading PBB. Malays make up 24.4% while Melanaus comprise 5.4% of the population.
Sarawak has not had a Dayak chief minister since Datuk Seri Penghulu Tawi Sli, who stepped down in 1970. He was succeeded by Taib’s uncle, Tun Abdul Rahman Ya’kub — both Abdul Rahman and Taib are Melanaus and collectively held power for 44 years.
However, the Malay/Melanau leadership had for decades closely aligned itself with the federal BN and that association afffected the state coalition during GE14.
“Yes, [the state BN] needs to break the BN chains as this is pulling it down. It needs to split, particularly from Umno [and the leaders associated with Najib],” says Welsh.
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