This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on May 8, 2018

KUALA LUMPUR: One of the big questions hanging over the 14th general election (GE14) is whether the rural Malay ground has shifted enough towards the opposition camp to end Barisan National’s (BN) six-decade rule.

The opposition is well aware that Malay-majority rural heartlands in the peninsula — constituting more than a third of Malaysia’s 222 parliamentary seats — helped BN retain power in GE13 despite losing the popular vote.

In the 2013 election, Umno added nine parliamentary seats — cancelling out MCA’s loss of eight seats — to secure 88 out of 133 BN seats, of which 66 were rural seats.

This time, talk is rife about a rising number of Umno and PAS grass-roots supporters who may resort to a silent protest over their unhappiness with issues such as infighting in their parties and poor governance in key institutions.

Pakatan Harapan is counting on the appeal of former prime minister Tun Dr  Mahathir Mohamad and the drawing power of Parti Amanah Negara, which was formed by a PAS splinter group, to attract this segment of voters.

Despite signs of a growing shift towards Pakatan however, there are many stumbling blocks on its way to victory.

With polling day almost here, the opposition’s events are drawing bigger crowds than BN events, but data analyses from politically linked groups on both sides of the political divide are claiming “ownership” of this voter group.

Up until recently, the sentimentality towards the Malay agenda has remained strong among some Malay voters who spoke to The Edge Financial Daily.

Last week, The Edge Financial Daily visited Sungai Besar — a 68%-Malay majority parliamentary constituency off the north-west coast of Selangor.

Plantation worker Luqman, 51, grumbled about how difficult it is to make ends meet for his wife and one child with a monthly income of around RM2,000.

But he shared that BN has received his vote in the last four elections, and that he will vote for the ruling coalition for a fifth time on May 9.

“Who else is going to take care of the Malays? Umno is our fortress,” he said.

Luqman, who recently received assistance relating to home ownership, also fears there will be no more government handouts if BN loses Putrajaya.

He did not think much about the scandals like the troubled 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) state investment fund, or issues associated with BN chairman and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

“The media will say many things … political talk is normal,” he said.

“Najib is okay for me. Remember during Mahathir’s time when wages for public servants were so low? Only during Najib’s time have they risen so much,” he said.

At a BN event in Hulu Terengganu, a six-time voter for the ruling coalition shared his unhappiness over lower commodity prices, coupled with rising prices of goods and services.

“Palm oil prices have halved from during Pak Lah’s (Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) time, and even the ringgit is weak against the [Thai] baht,” said farmer Khairul Rani, 60.

When asked if he will make the switch to the opposition, he gave a small laugh and replied with a Malay idiom: “Sedangkan lidah lagi tergigit (even best friends fight).”

Khairul’s spouse, a Kelantanese in her 30’s, confided that many villagers in her Felda hometown — a BN stronghold — are also upset over the government’s failure to resolve the bread-and-butter issues.

But, they plan to “teach BN a lesson” by not voting this year rather than supporting the opposition, she said.

This reaction is seen as a trait in Malay society, where the people do not openly express their disagreement as an expression of loyalty to the leadership.

Rather, they make their feelings known quietly and gradually. This is sometimes reflected in Malay culture in the use of proverbs to “berkias” — or hint — at what is in their minds.

“Malays do not like overkill,” says Amanah strategic director Dr Dzuklefly Ahmad.

Dzulkefly, who will contest in Kuala Selangor — also a Malay-majority rural seat — opined that the bigger hurdle in the path of a real swing in Malay votes towards Pakatan is the fear of a backlash from long-time Umno/PAS supporters.

“But Umno has totally lost the plot,” he argued. “They’ve been playing both the race and religious cards — and DAP is the bogeyman that has frightened the Malays.

“However we are very clear that we can provide the alternative narrative,” he said.

“One of the strongest narratives in the ‘new Malay’ scenario is about replacing BN and Umno ‘Malay’ with two iconic Malay leaders in Tun Mahathir and  Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim,” he added.

Dzulkefly also shared how Pakatan  has gained traction in what has always been BN “fixed deposit” seats such as Felda constituencies — previously impenetrable, even to PAS.

“A few years ago, I would never have imagined that PH (Pakatan) will have its own operation centres in some Felda villages here in Kuala Selangor.”

However, the welcoming attitude by locals towards Dzulkefly — as seen by The Edge Financial Daily during walkabouts — could be a result of his efforts in building relationships with the locals over the years.

“Few politicians understand that Malay politics is ‘mannered’ politics,” he said, emphasising on the importance of an approachable personality, a strong machinery, as well as a consistent and long-term presence to win votes.

By this yardstick, Pakatan will pay a price for the lack of a strong machinery in Malay-majority states in the east coast such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang.

Going back to Sungai Besar, the same strategy helped the BN coalition win a by-election there in May 2016 after the member of parliament passed away in an accident.

The by-election was one of the first instances of a three-cornered fight between BN, PAS and Pakatan, which is a prevalent feature of this GE.

BN held on to the seat through Budiman Zohdi with a majority of 9,191, despite the by-election being held at the height of scandals including 1MDB at that time.

In Kuala Selangor, Dzulkefly, who won the seat in GE12 on a PAS ticket, will be contesting against incumbent Datuk Seri Irmohizam Ibrahim of BN — who beat him by 461 votes in GE13 — and PAS Kuala Selangor deputy president Mohd Fakaruddin Ismail.

Known as a “formal” politician previously, Irmohizam has adopted a similar approach to Dzulkefly such as walkabouts and meeting the rakyat face-to-face.

“Organising political talks is an old method and I don’t think it is suitable for this election campaign,” he told a local daily last week.

At the state seat level, PKR retained Ijok in GE13 while BN snatched back Bukit Melawati. The coalition has also successfully kept the Jeram state seat since 1959.

Both state seats won by BN are Malay-majority seats.

Irmohizam, a Najib loyalist, also expressed confidence in Malay support when speaking to reporters after a visit to Puncak Alam last week.

“We see how today there is no evidence of a reduction in Malay support for BN. Especially in Kuala Selangor, the support of the Malay voters is increasing day by day,” he said.

“Support in rural Malay heartlands is no longer monolithic,” responded Dzulkefly. “I don’t want to tell you this, but I have a weird, weird hunch that there will be a tsunami across all three major ethnics.”