This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 23, 2018 - April 29, 2018

I wrote previously of the upcoming general election as a battle that Barisan Nasional cannot afford to lose. The converse, alas, is equally true: The main opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan, may not survive for long beyond a crushing defeat in the polls. This is due primarily to both structural and “personal” reasons, and they are related to one another.

For one, BN (especially its driving party, Umno) has ruled the country for more than half a century and instituted a communally based socio-politico-economic system that permeates most facets of Malaysian society.

In the ruling coalition, the interests of the various races are “represented” by mostly outwardly racialist component parties such as Umno, MCA and MIC, in addition to the indigenous component parties from Sabah and Sarawak.

Racialist and communalist attitudes have long set in and taken root in the mindset of most voters, not the least those residing in the rural constituencies or hailing from urban lower classes.

The default political formula was for the BN component parties to champion their various communal rights and interests, which then translates into national policies.

It has obviously worked well at least at the national level for BN as it has never lost its grip on federal power.

In a sense, the opposition has long tried to offer an alternative sociopolitical scenario to the voters, starting at least as early as Datuk Onn Jaafar’s idealistically inclusive Parti Negara and continuing with DAP’s “Malaysians’ Malaysia”, that of a non-communalist or multiracial political formula, whereby people’s welfare, irrespective of race or religion, is to be taken care of.

This brand of sociopolitical proposition has resonated well with the more educated and broadly exposed urban upper and middle classes, who realise that it is in tune with the mainstream progressive social movements of the world. But it has decidedly limited ideological impact on some voters, especially those in the rural areas, who often retreat to their “comfortable” default of having their rights championed by the communalist political interests.

Indeed, arguably and somewhat ironically, PAS, despite its overwhelmingly religious outlook, may be said to be less communally based at its core than many racialist BN component parties. It is perhaps only due to the constitutionally defined fusion of race and religion that PAS has to from time to time exude its “communal” stripes.

The other two component parties of the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat portray their non-communalism even more explicitly, presenting themselves as all-inclusive parties worthy of support by all Malaysians and not just supporters from any particular race to the exclusion of others. Even PAS wisely attenuated its erstwhile somewhat extremist theocratic pursuit in favour of a more widely appealing “welfare state” slogan.

And this alternative, non-communal proposition appeared almost to have worked in the last two general elections, with Pakatan Rakyat having denied BN’s much-vaunted two-thirds parliamentary majority successively, and having won more than half of the popular vote in 2013. In a sense, non-communalism may be said to have become almost a distinguishing political feature for Pakatan Rakyat and at least for a while, votes appeared to have come handily for them.

But that was not meant to be for long. After the moderate Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s passing, the conservatives and young Turks in PAS decided to join hands and defeat the professionals among them. The party was almost overnight brought back to its old theocratically inspired past (although its socialist roots were conveniently forgotten) as those in charge of the party were of the opinion that an albeit slight departure from their strict theocratic struggles, though making them more palatable to the urban elite, has cost them many rural constituencies. This was, of course, in direct ideological contradiction with the other two more secularly oriented Pakatan Rakyat component parties.

The departure of PAS from Pakatan Rakyat caused the latter’s demise, but DAP and PKR tried to resuscitate it by forming Pakatan Harapan with Amanah, a splinter PAS group comprising moderate professionals. But Pakatan Harapan’s defeats in two by-elections put to rest any notion that PAS’ pulling away of Pakatan Rakyat grassroots could be replaced by Amanah supporters.

Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad left Umno and formed his own distinctively racialist Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, which was ceremoniously accepted into Pakatan Harapan. This can thus be seen as a realistically regressive step on Pakatan Harapan’s part to desperately try to court more rural voters, who will undoubtedly be the kingmakers in the upcoming general election, although it remains to be seen to what extent Dr Mahathir’s residual appeal will help Pakatan Harapan.

Moreover, Pakatan Harapan’s decision to use the PKR logo as a common symbol for all its election candidates may be viewed as yet another pragmatic concession to the “default” voter mindset that is still very much communalist in nature, for it was said, for example, that intense propaganda over the years has rendered the DAP rocket logo simply non-palatable to certain voters without active campaigning among them by PAS on DAP’s behalf, as was the case in the last two general elections. The reality is that if Pakatan Harapan fails win this election and thus gain the incumbent advantage to forcefully push through a non-communal political agenda, which would be its distinguishing political feature, it will be increasingly reduced to having to “cater” for the voters’ “default” communalist political mindset, in which case it will become ideologically indistinguishable from BN, and yet will be no match to BN’s abundant incumbent advantages.

The more “personal” note to Pakatan Harapan’s urgent need to win this election has to do with, unsurprisingly, the personality cult that is still prevalent in the minds of many voters who are still steeped in what can perhaps best be called a semi-feudalistic mentality. Followers here need prominent figures to lead their political charge forward. The nonagenarian Dr Mahathir has little time to waste and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is also pushing into his seventh decade. There is simply no equally inspiring middling Pakatan Harapan figure that can consolidate the coalition, let alone resuscitate it in future elections.

And all these are based on the optimistic assumption that elections will be free and fair, which may or may not be wishful thinking. Dire consequences await a Pakatan Harapan defeated.

Dr Oh Ei Sun advises policy institutes in Malaysia and abroad. He was political secretary to the prime minister from 2009 to 2011. ​

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