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This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on March 26, 2018 - April 1, 2018

MUCH like its purported date, the final outcome of the upcoming general election is subject to much speculation. The ruling Barisan Nasional has lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority — which is needed to amend the Constitution — since 2008.

What are the prospects of a change of government as voters head for the polls within the next few months? At the risk of over-generalising, it remains a formidable task for the opposition to overcome the BN’s stranglehold on power.

There are those who opine that this election will be mainly fought on issues, especially national issues. Let’s take perhaps the most frequently mentioned — 1MDB-related scandals and corruption issues — for the sake of discussion.

A few years ago, 1MDB — and some of the personalities and entities associated with it — became a sensation almost overnight, with the foreign press and, to a lesser extent, local media chasing the latest developments. This paper, for example, was briefly shut down for its doggedness in reporting on affairs concerning 1MDB.

Heated discussions of 1MDB’s affairs could be heard in coffee shops and seen on online forums.

However, as time went on and 1MDB-related matters could no longer be officially pursued any further locally, no matter what the international community did, popular frustration gradually gave way to widespread haplessness and apathy.

Now, with the general election drawing close, there is scarcely any realistic expectation that the affairs of 1MDB will feature as a prominent issue.

Some may argue that unfavourable sentiments about it are still simmering beneath the surface. Even if that were so, they are most likely to be found among the more critically-minded urban and suburban voters. But these voters, in any case, are more likely to have voted, and will continue to choose, the opposition. 1MDB simply confirms their negative views of the ruling coalition.

As the opposition’s winning margins in many such constituencies are quite significant, and thus hard for the BN to reverse, realistically, it matters little even if more of such voters vote for the opposition as it will only get to keep its existing seats.

What, in my opinion, really matters are the rural voters whose numbers, even though they may have decreased proportionately compared with their urban and suburban compatriots, still make up the majority of voters in many constituencies. They may or may not share the same views of 1MDB, but at least they do not exhibit a similar degree of indignation as their more urbane brethren.

In fact, I sometimes wonder whether many of them even understand the meaning of kleptocracy (a thieving political regime and even social milieu) — a term much brandished about by the opposition — not to mention basing their voting decisions on such abstract (to them) concepts.

What would move rural voters remain resolutely materialistic and spiritual matters.

BN, as the incumbent, has the advantage in bringing much-needed infrastructure developments to rural areas. Decent roads, potable water, stable electricity, schools, clinics, and even ample supply of diesel for boat motors and generator sets are indispensable means for earning a livelihood that only the incumbent government in a developing country like Malaysia can provide.

The Goods and Services Tax, which is much disliked in more urban settings (and thus serves to gain even more votes for the opposition) may not cause as much hardship in rural areas as many basic items used in the villages are exempted from the tax. In any case, there are many subsidies to help lessen the burden of rural households.

Opposition leader Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad may attract sizeable crowds as he stumps the rural areas. But to put it bluntly, he is simply no longer in a position to dole out attractive materialistic handouts to rural voters. As such, it is doubtful how much of the crowds he draws will translate into votes for the opposition.

For a smaller number of rural voters who may be less drawn to such materialistic items, there is always the more spiritual side of things. They could forgo BN and go for the party that proclaims itself to be the most representative spiritually — PAS. But as PAS has in all but name left the opposition and apparently has ties with Umno, a vote for PAS is effectively a sly vote for Umno.

This is especially so when PAS chooses to put candidates in seats that would otherwise see straight fights between BN and the opposition, splitting mainly opposition votes and thus increasing BN’s chances of victory.

Thus, the baseline scenario for the general election results would be continued opposition dominance of urban and suburban seats, while most rural seats would go to to Umno or PAS.

Apart from this, I see at least two wild cards. One is the voting mood of the so-called millennials who came of age recently and are notoriously difficult to please. The opposition normally appeals more to such voters. If the millennials, who make up the bulk of new voters, are apathetic and decide not to come out to vote, it would of course benefit the BN, which has a vastly more superior machinery to mobilise its core voters.

The other wild card is the see-saw effect between Dr Mahathir and his comrades who left Umno — and supposedly brought their supporters along — versus the departure of PAS from the opposition coalition, reportedly taking away a chunk of grassroots supporters. It remains to be seen if the number of supporters of these two sides cancel each other out, or if one will outvote the other.

 

Dr Oh Ei Sun advises policy institutes in Malaysia and abroad. He was political secretary to the prime minister from 2009 to 2011.

 

 

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