This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 16, 2018 - April 22, 2018

THE Edge writer Adam Aziz, covering the Kelantan political scene for the 14th general election, observes that Barisan Nasional chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak, speaking at an event in Ketereh a few days ago, “only bashed (Tun) Dr Mahathir (Mohamad) and did not touch PAS at all”.

Najib has been doing that a lot for some time now. And he is doing it everywhere, not only in Kelantan.

Such tirades only add credence to something that almost everybody seems to believe — that Umno and PAS are enjoying cordial ties to the extent of establishing an electoral “pact” of sorts.

The pact has never been announced officially. Or in the open. Until now, that is. PAS seems to be going to great pains to deny that a pact is in the works. It insists that Umno/Barisan Nasional is an enemy.

And when a picture of Najib and Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang hugging each other made the rounds, the PAS president even saw it right to explain that it was Najib who “embraced me first and I can’t be pushing him off, can I?” (This is even though there is a video that went viral which shows otherwise.)

Still action, gestures and words, or the lack thereof (as in the case of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal), seem to suggest that there is indeed a pact, in some form or another, between the two Malay-based parties. For instance, launching attacks on Pakatan Harapan instead of Umno/BN is like reciprocating Najib’s gesture. And, of course, there is PAS’ imminent participation in three-cornered fights, which pundits say would give Umno an advantage if not victory. That aside, PAS’ intention of contesting “impossible to win” seats is seen as making the ground soft for Umno, so to speak.

It is alleged that in Kelantan, PAS “wants” voters to cast their ballots for BN candidates for parliamentary seats and PAS candidates for state seats to enable the party to continue to rule the state.

Kelantan-born political writer Mohd Sayuti Omar said he was told that PAS had made some “adjustments” and would field its “weaker” candidates for parliamentary seats and deploy the “stronger” ones for state seats.

However, if there’s anything PAS has said in the open, it must be its desire to be a kingmaker in GE14. That would mean helping or giving the numbers crucial to rule in the event of a tight situation. As the party sees it, the upcoming election will be keenly contested and that warrants it to “top up” the tally to enable parties to form the next government.

You don’t have to be a political scientist to determine what PAS has in mind: It will provide Umno with the “needed seats” to govern — to make up the numbers, if you like. To do that, PAS and, for that matter, Umno must win the Malay votes. Both are targeting rural and semi-urban Malay voters.

Umno is saying that it can do it. A couple of weeks ago, that seemed to be possible. But of late, with recent developments indicating a shift in the Malay ground, Umno’s confidence cannot be taken seriously.

The “temporary” suspension of Dr Mahathir’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), the perceived bias of the Registrar of Societies and Election Commission against Pakatan Harapan and even the Tengku Mahkota of Johor’s “comments” on certain politicians are not doing Umno/BN any good.

There’s no denying that Dr Mahathir is causing more than a stir and PPBM, together with Amanah and Parti Keadilan Rakyat, is making inroads into rural areas because of him.

The sentiment on the ground is not something Umno and BN would be comfortable with. But as a political observer friend pointed out, it’s still early days in GE14.

Nonetheless, can PAS do it? Can it make good its promise to be a kingmaker and help Umno?

Hisomuddin Bakar, head of research outfit Ilham Centre, specialising in Malay political parties, has this to say following a recent detailed study: “Umno is using PAS as a subject to split opposition votes.”

But of late, support for PAS has slid abruptly. In states like Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Johor, its machinery seems to be lethargic.

It’s no secret that there are PAS members (and for that matter, even Umno members) who are not “thrilled” about a PAS-Umno pact. However, they can or are expected to be “coaxed” by their leaders.

Also, Hadi and his deputy, Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, do not seem to be on the same page, at least on certain issues. However, it is not known if their “differences” led to the findings of the Ilham Centre study.

Anyway, Hisomuddin went on to say: “In this kind of situation, if PAS contests, some of its candidates will lose their deposits. That’s why I say PAS will face problems and lose in this political calculation.”

To long-time PAS watcher Sayuti, PAS’ kingmaker project is an “illusion”.

Another question to pose is, will the Christian, Iban, Kadazan, Chinese and Malay-based parties in Sabah and Sarawak welcome a Umno-PAS pact? Or will they instead be the real kingmakers?

Mohsin Abdullah is a contributing editor at The Edge. He has covered politics for over four decades.

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