Thursday 28 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on May 7, 2018

Northern Johor has produced many of the state’s top leaders throughout its modern history. In fact, Umno founder Datuk Onn Jaafar was born in Tangkak in 1895. Three of the state’s menteris besar were born in Muar, the district that borders Melaka. They are Tan Sri Hassan Yunus (who served from 1959 to 1967), Tan Sri Othman Saat (1967 to 1982) and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin (1986 to 1995).

Current caretaker menteri besar, Datuk Mohamed Khaled Nordin, also hails from Muar, although he spent much of his political career in southern Johor as the member of parliament for Johor Baru and Pasir Gudang between 1990 and 2013.

Datuk Ajib Ahmad, the menteri besar between 1982 and 1986, was born in Segamat, another district in northern Johor, while Tan Sri Abdul Ghani Othman, who held the post between 1995 and 2013, was born in Tangkak.

It is no surprise then that for the 14th general election (GE14), the Pakatan Harapan onslaught on Johor comes from the northern part of the state. Led by Muhyiddin, northern Johor will see some of the most hotly contested seats on May 9.

“Both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan will watch the contest in northern Johor very closely as the region is home to mostly rural seats, which will determine whether the so-called Malay tsunami happens this time around,” says an observer who is familiar with the political scene in Johor.

BN’s mission is to both maintain the status quo in the Ledang, Segamat, Sekijang, Labis and Muar parliamentary constituencies and wrest Pagoh and Bakri from the clutches of the opposition.

While Pakatan Harapan aims to win all the seats contested, the reality is that many of those in northern Johor are Malay-majority rural seats, where the opposition coalition does not command the kind of support that BN does.

In GE13, when PAS was leading the charge for the then Pakatan Rakyat in Johor, the opposition pact was not that well received by Malay voters, comments Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, Pakatan Harapan’s candidate for Muar in GE14.

“It is not just in Muar but all over Johor. Malay support for Pakatan Rakyat in Johor was the lowest among all the states in the peninsula. It was at an abysmal 13% while support from Malay voters for seats in Selangor was as high as 40%.

“But now we are polling 30% to 40% of Malay voters, even in three-cornered fights. What is unique about Johor is that [support for Pakatan Harapan] is not affected that much in a three-cornered fight,” says Saddiq when met at a Pakatan Harapan gathering in Muar last week.

The Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) youth wing head is facing incumbent Datuk Razali Ibrahim of BN and Abdul Aziz Talib of PAS in the fight for the Muar seat.

Saddiq says Bersatu, which is led by top Malay leaders, is playing a major role in winning over Malay voters for Pakatan Harapan now that PAS is out of the opposition coalition.

In Johor, Bersatu has been tasked with making inroads into the Malay-majority rural areas. Thus, the battle for Johor will be in the north, where there are many rural Malay-majority seats that have been BN strongholds for decades.

Besides Muhyiddin, who will be defending his Pagoh parliamentary seat and Saddiq, the party’s leaders include chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and deputy president Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir.

Saddiq says the presence of these Malay leaders in Pakatan Harapan serves to reassure Malay voters in Johor that the coalition will not be dominated by DAP if it wins the election and forms the government both at the state and federal levels.

According to him, Malay support for PAS in Johor had never been strong, judging from the paltry 13% support Pakatan Rakyat secured in GE13. Plus, the increasing convergence of narratives between PAS and Umno makes the vote split to be between them rather than with Bersatu.

“About a year or two ago, PAS’ narrative was almost merged with Pakatan Rakyat’s narrative: Islam for all. We are the opposition; we are the main fighters against Umno. That is why at that point in time, Malay support for PAS was as high as 40%, even higher than the support enjoyed by Umno,” remarks Saddiq.

“But today, the narrative for PAS and Umno is similar: Islam first. Malay supremacy. Multiracial Malaysia is almost non-existent. PAS is no longer fielding itself as an alternative government but as a party for a unity government.”

 

Malays in Pagoh against pact with DAP

In Pagoh, the BN candidate contesting against Muhyiddin is Ismail Mohamed — the former deputy prime minister’s protégé during his time in Umno. Also vying for the seat is Ahmad Nawfal Mahfodz of PAS.

Ismail says he had a choice between defending his Bukit Serampang (now known as Bukit Kepong) state seat — which is in the Pagoh parliamentary constituency — and taking on his mentor for the Pagoh seat itself.

“If I were contesting the Bukit Kepong seat again and if I won, I would have the chance to continue serving as a state executive councillor [assuming BN returns to power in the state],” he tells The Edge Malaysia weekly at Wisma Sri Pekembar in Pagoh.

“But I am contesting against Tan Sri Muhyiddin. Even if I win here, there is no guarantee that I will be appointed to any position at the federal level.”

Ismail was made executive councillor for agriculture and agro-based industries, entrepreneur development and cooperatives after winning Bukit Kepong with a majority of 7,845 votes against Pakatan Rakyat’s Saadon Abdullah in GE13.

So, what made him decide to take on Muhyiddin in a constituency that his former mentor has held since 1995?

“I want to ensure that BN wins again in Pagoh. This is a rural seat, which must remain with BN [besides the state government] so that the development programmes that we have planned will be carried out smoothly,” Ismail says.

However, he may be facing an uphill battle, given Muhyiddin’s popularity in the constituency. Indeed, a grand public ceramah organised by the opposition coalition in Panchor recently saw the attendance of thousands of people.

But Johor BN leaders claim that the huge attendance was not due to Muhyiddin, although he was the state’s menteri besar for 10 years, but Mahathir’s presence.

Ismail says Bersatu has not received much support from the Malays in Pagoh, despite Muhyiddin having been its representative there for four terms.

He claims that when Bersatu was formed, it was hard for the new party to establish branches in Pagoh. In the initial stage, the party could not even set up one branch for each of the polling districts.

At the same time, Muhyiddin’s resignation from Umno did not dent the party’s membership and network in Pagoh, says Ismail, adding that of the 106 branch leaders in the constituency, only eight or nine left Umno to follow Muhyiddin.

“The main issue was the pact he set up with DAP. The Malays in Pagoh look at the party; only a small group looks at the personality behind it. And the Malays cannot accept that Muhyiddin is now in a pact with DAP.”

Backed by the BN machinery in Pagoh to help him with the campaigning, Ismail says the coalition has identified about 25,000 local Malay voters who can be considered “white voters” — those who are definitely going to vote for BN come election day.

He adds that about 4,000 out-of-town voters have also been identified as BN supporters, raising the number of “sure voters” to 29,000 or 56.3% of the total number of voters in Pagoh.

In 2013, Muhyiddin, who was contesting under the BN ticket, polled 26,274 votes against 13,432 by PAS’ Mohd Rozali Jamil for a majority of 12,842 votes.

When asked why he is so confident that the Malays in Pagoh will not support Muhyiddin again this time around, Ismail says it is because of the sensitivity of the Malays in the constituency to any form of political movement that involves DAP. And this sensitivity was sown by Muhyiddin himself when he was with Umno, he adds.

“What he sowed while he was with Umno in Pagoh will backfire on him and his party. The Malays in Pagoh still cannot accept any political involvement with DAP. This is the case with those within Umno. Even those sitting on the fence are loyal to Umno.”

It remains to be seen whether Ismail’s confidence in the BN machinery in Pagoh and his claim of Malay sensitivity to DAP will translate into a win for him and the ruling coalition against a resurgent Bersatu led by Muhyiddin.

 

Saddiq’s rising popularity in Muar

Over in Muar, Saddiq’s popularity is rising. He has been received with thunderous applause at any event organised by Pakatan Harapan in northern Johor when introduced as the coalition’s candidate for the constituency.

The 25-year-old is also seen making waves in Sungai Balang, which is a rural state seat within Muar with 74% Malay voters. The other state seat in Muar is Maharani, which is more urban with 61% Malay and 36% Chinese voters.

In an event held at Parit Nawi in Sungai Balang recently, about 200 people came to a modest kampung house to listen to Saddiq, Muhyiddin, Norhayati Bachok (Pakatan Harapan candidate for Maharani) and Na’im Jusri (Pakatan Harapan candidate for Sungai Balang).

While the turnout was modest compared with the mega gatherings held earlier in Panchor, Pasir Gudang and Parit Jawa, it was still significant, considering that Parit Nawi is a small kampung where BN won 80% of the votes in GE13.

The fact that he is one of the youngest candidates in GE14 has not stopped Saddiq from reaching out to the older generation in Muar. They know him from the publicity he has received, even through government-controlled media outlets.

“It is often a misconception that in semi-urban and rural seats, people do not access the Internet or use social media or get alternative news. For example, a 72-year-old imam recently told me that he got to know about me through Facebook,” he says.

“I think it is wrong to label them as people who are not tuned in to what’s happening in the country. This is not just about knowing me as a person but about the issues. So they are quite well informed.” — The Edge Malaysia

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