This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 30, 2018 - May 6, 2018
IN the last general election, more than half of those who voted opted for the component parties of the then major opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat. Nevertheless, as many constituencies had and still have a vastly different number of voters and Barisan Nasional prevailed mainly in sparsely populated rural constituencies that made up and still make up the vast majority of parliamentary seats, BN was able to retain its parliamentary majority and form the government.
Thus, in the upcoming general election, whether there is a “backflow” of voters’ willingness to vote for BN, or rather their propensity is to bend even more towards Pakatan Harapan as PR’s successor coalition, thus causing a political “tsunami” of sorts, will be of critical importance in determining control of Putrajaya. BN in its political propaganda, of course, repeatedly emphasises such backflows, which are sure to benefit its electoral prospects. PH, in its many public rallies, also calls upon the voters to be bold enough to create a political momentum that is approaching a tsunami.
There may not be standard answers to whether or not there be backflows or tsunamis, or both, before or even after the announcement of the election results. The answers may depend, to a large extent, on the often jarring perspectives from which one interpret these “interesting” yet complicated issues.
Let’s first take a look at the Chinese voters. In the last general election, they were said to have voted for the opposition to the tune of anywhere from 70% to over 90% with an average in the mid-80%. Many of the so-called Chinese-based BN component parties, such as MCA, Gerakan and Sarawak United Peoples’ Party, lost in most of the constituencies they contested. Even the previously very theocratically minded PAS, as it then decided to moderate its outlook to that of a “welfare state” and with the canvassing help of the other two PR component parties, won a higher percentage of Chinese support than that of Malays in its contested areas.
This decidedly one-sided voting pattern was perhaps why, on election night, as results poured in, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak blurted out the notion of a “Chinese tsunami” when describing BN’s worst performance compared with the previous polls. The opposition hastened to dispute this notion as it was worried that in the prevailing racialist sociopolitical landscape that is Malaysia, many Malay voters might thus be persuaded to continue supporting BN (and especially Umno, which vows to champion Malay rights) so as to preserve their political dominance in the country. The Chinese community also felt uncomfortable with that notion, lest it deepened the divide among the various communities.
In any case, in recent days, the BN Chinese-based component parties have been loudly proclaiming the dripping backflows of Chinese votes. They mainly believe in what they consider the pragmatism of Chinese voters in learning the painful reason of being unable to dislodge BN from the seat of government even with a popular majority. In addition, BN has been more than avid in “exposing” what it claims to be scandals and abuses in states helmed by the federal opposition, such as Penang and Selangor. The decidedly not-Chinese-friendly remarks and deeds of PH leader Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad during his BN days were summarily unearthed and widely publicised. With all these being done, it is hoped that at least some Chinese votes would flow back to BN. And the regaining of several seats by SUPP in the last Sarawak election was touted as proof of these hypotheses.
Alas, a lot of Chinese voters continue to view many official policies as being unfair and, therefore, they develop a degree of socioeconomic resilience that enables them to not depend on official largesse and thus be able to vote as they please, although many still harbour much misgivings about the status quo. The BN Chinese-based component parties also continue to be perceived as ineffectual in fighting for equal rights for the Chinese community as citizens of Malaysia. The “exposed” state-level scandals are viewed as nothing more than latest manifestations of malicious political persecution. And Dr Mahathir’s old, admittedly less-than-kind words about the Chinese, are also being compared with what many perceive as the rampant corrupt practices that is the order of the day. Sarawak’s alleged Chinese backflows are due mainly to the widespread popular admiration for the late chief minister and may or may not recur in this election.
Hence, it remains highly doubtful if the so-called Chinese backflows in favour of BN would indeed take place.
Conversely, if indeed many Chinese voters are frustrated at the inability to change government in the last general election and decide to “cool off” this round, that is, not come out to vote, or if many who work overseas or otherwise away from their voting areas do not go back to vote, then there might superficially be a Chinese backflow phenomenon, at least percentage-wise.
For Indian voters, the factors causing their similarly one-sided support for the opposition in the last two general elections were mainly socioeconomic in nature. And BN was not blind to this, having paid extravagant attention to the socioeconomic development of the community in the last few years. Thus, there is likely to be a significant Indian backflow in favour of BN. At the very least, the hitherto extremely vocal Hindraf movement is nowhere to be seen nowadays, having been divided and diminished by an internal split.
As for Malay voters, PH has been harping on the possibility of a Malay tsunami in the coming polls, which it hopes would propel it to Putrajaya. Its “confidence” in this regard lies in its view that as Dr Mahathir now helms PH, he will be able to win over many of the crucial rural voters who previously sang only to the tunes of Umno or PAS. But he has left the centre of power for many years and is no longer in a position to bring about the many development projects in the rural areas. His religious credentials, too, are no match to the decidedly Islamist PAS. So, it is premature to speculate that he would indeed make electoral inroads into the rural constituencies long irrigated by Umno.
Even if Dr Mahathir were to deliver some rural Malay votes to PH, these are more than cancelled by PAS’ departure from the major opposition coalition and thus cleaving a chunk of its fundamental support base. And PAS has already declared its intention to contest in many constituencies that would otherwise see straight fights between BN and PH. The votes thus split away would come mostly from the opposition, therefore ushering in otherwise close Umno wins. Hence, although the clamouring for backflows and tsunamis is loud and clear these days, they may not readily manifest themselves in the election results.
Dr Oh Ei Sun advises policy institutes in Malaysia and abroad. He was political secretary to the prime minister from 2009 to 2011.
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