This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on July 6, 2017

KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit could weaken to 4.40 against the US dollar in the third quarter (3Q) of 2017, said Shan Saeed, chief economist at Dubai-based IQI Group, but the local currency is unlikely to crash as Malaysia’s fundamentals remain intact.

He has observed that the ringgit usually sees some weakening in 3Q and 4Q of the year, but will bounce back to its fair value of between 4.10 and 4.30 against the greenback.

The ringgit closed unchanged at 4.298 against the US dollar yesterday.

“The ringgit usually slides in the third and fourth quarters every year based on historical data. This is due to fund managers, which take long positions, adjusting their portfolios,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the RHB Banking Group Regional Conference 2017 yesterday.

“I think the ringgit will slide to 4.40 this year, but it will recover to 4.30 eventually,” he added.

Shan said the ringgit will be supported by an expected rise in crude oil prices going forward, while investor confidence and consumer spending remain strong.

He noted that weakening in the US dollar has also resulted in appreciation of the ringgit.

Despite a slew of negative news on Malaysia last year, he said, the ringgit was the best performing Asean currency.

“In December last year, everyone was talking about [the] ringgit falling to 5.80 against the US dollar, but currently it is still trading at around 4.30,” he said.

On Malaysia’s economic growth, Shan expects a gross domestic product growth of 4.8% to 5.2% for 2017 and 2018, supported by domestic consumption and investments.