This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on March 12, 2018 - March 18, 2018

The investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller into possible criminal violations associated with Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election has been compared to the scandal known as Watergate, which began with a break-in at Democratic Party headquarters in 1972. The Watergate affair led to the departure of Richard Nixon, the only resignation of a president in the US’ history. “Trumpgate” is unfolding now and things look to be worsening for President Donald Trump.

In comparing the two sagas, the competing sides have polar opposite views. Pro-Trump Republicans (there are many Republicans who are vehemently anti-Trump too) argue that the investigation is a witch-hunt aimed at delegitimising the Trump presidency by suggesting, first, that Russian involvement in the election made possible his victory and, second, that Trump’s campaign team colluded with the Russians in this effort.

Democrats insist that there is plenty of evidence to warrant the investigation and that efforts to portray the FBI and other intelligence agencies as complicit in an effort to undermine Trump are nothing more than an attempt to divert attention from the Mueller investigation. They point to Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey and continued public criticism of Attorney General Jeff Sessions as strong evidence that he wants FBI assistance in ending the probe — something Comey opposed and Sessions cannot now do, as he has recused himself from the Russia probe.

The Watergate scandal was investigated first by special prosecutor Archibald Cox. President Nixon was opposed to Cox’s request for copies of taped conversations in the Oval Office but since Cox was not answerable to the president, he could not stop the investigation.

So, in October 1973, Nixon ordered his attorney general, Elliot Richardson, to fire Cox. Richardson resigned instead, so Nixon ordered the second in line at the Justice Department, William Ruckelshaus, to do the firing. Ruckelshaus, like Richardson, resigned instead of following the president’s orders. Finally, Nixon ordered his solicitor general, Robert Bork, to carry out the order, and Bork complied.

The Cox firing was a monumental mistake by Nixon. Cox was replaced by Leon Jaworski and the investigation continued unabated. The two resignations and the firing — all in one day — became known as the “Saturday Night Massacre” and was the beginning of the end for Nixon. The appearance that Nixon was trying to thwart the uncovering of his own wrongdoing turned the American public and most of his fellow Republicans in Congress against him. By the following summer, three articles of impeachment were drawn up and approved by the House Judiciary Committee and Nixon realised that his congressional base of support was gone. He resigned on Aug 9, 1974.

Will Trump repeat Nixon’s mistake by ordering the firing of Mueller, or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein? At this point, no one knows but already, many Justice officials who supported the special prosecutor’s work — including acting Attorney General Sally Yates, federal prosecutor Preet Bharara, Comey and, most recently, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe — have been dismissed or resigned under pressure. At this time, speculation centres on the fate of Mueller and the person to whom Mueller directly reports, Rosenstein.

The other newsworthy issue at present is whether Trump will agree to testify before

Mueller. Understandably, his lawyers caution him not to do so. In responding to questions, the president could lie, as he sometimes does, or make damaging revelations about his actions.

Nixon’s biggest error, in the eyes of many, was his unwillingness to turn over to the special prosecutor taped White House conversations that incriminated him. The Supreme Court ordered him to do so, but he could have destroyed the tapes long before that point, even after Congress subpoenaed the tapes. Clearly, Nixon, judging by his behaviour as revealed in the tapes, was not above burning the tapes.

Why he chose not to do so remains a mystery. Perhaps he (mistakenly) believed that he could withstand the consequences of the taped evidence because of Republican support in the Senate, where, following a vote to impeach by the House, a two-thirds vote (67 out of 100 senators) would be required to remove him from office. Since there were 42 Republican senators, a party-line vote would have saved Nixon with room to spare.

Could Trump survive an impeachment effort should incriminating evidence mount against him? Possibly, because he has some distinct advantages Nixon did not enjoy. First, the House is controlled by Republicans; in 1974, Democrats had a solid House majority.

Second, there is an effort by some Republicans to resist the prosecution of Trump by continuing a counter-offensive assault on pro-Hillary Clinton Democrats and the FBI; nothing of the sort existed in 1974.

Third, Trump has a hard core of supporters. According to Trump, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters.” Nixon never enjoyed such backing. And finally, the American public is much more divided today than it was four decades ago, and it is far less trusting of institutions — political parties, intelligence agencies, the media, even the courts — than it was in the Watergate era.

It is a distinct possibility that, even if overwhelming evidence of complicity in the Russian effort to undermine the 2016 election emerges, the president could survive “Trumpgate”. But this is far from a certainty. Republicans could very well lose control of the House, and perhaps even the Senate, this November. Evidence could emerge that causes Trump’s support to erode. Or Republicans in Congress could conclude that sticking with Trump does their party more harm than good.

At this time, Trumpgate constitutes a political crisis. But with both groups of partisan antagonists determined to prevail, it could easily become a constitutional crisis.

William Borges, a political scientist, is on the faculty of HELP University, Malaysia

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