This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on September 24, 2018 - September 30, 2018

Nearly five months ago, right after the historic change of government following the surprising results of the general election, Umno’s representatives, especially the parliamentarians, were sort of left in limbo. While their party remained the single largest one in parliament, it ceased for the first time to rule the country, and became the opposition.

The Umno MPs and the many “warlords” around Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah suddenly found themselves deprived of the benefits of incumbency, from lucrative contracts to cushy directorships. Members of the former Barisan Nasional (BN) administration, led by Umno, had previously enjoyed the many perks of office.

A sense of despair permeated Umno, or at least the senior ranks. A party election was hastily pushed forward following the resignation of former party president and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Senior party leaders, featuring both old and tired faces as well as new but somewhat “ultra” figures, were elected over supposedly more moderate and less “toxic” personalities such as Khairy Jamaluddin, who were more or less left out in the cold.

But now, the dire situation the Umno MPs found themselves in has improved somewhat, albeit in unexpected ways. With their parliamentary seats, they have slowly come to learn that there are various options open to them in the new political environment. This is based on new political realities and an unfolding political development.

The first has to do with an analysis of the results of the watershed general election. According to some polls firms and think tanks, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) obtained the support of over 90% of non-bumiputera voters, it did not fare so well among Malay voters, about 70% of whom opted for Umno or Islamist party PAS.

This is perhaps not surprising, given that Umno traditionally enjoyed the backing of about half of the Malay electorate. After the 2013 general election, which saw BN once again lose the much coveted two-third parliamentary majority, Umno devised what it considered a “grand strategy” of co-opting erstwhile rival PAS, which had by then started to display a more radicalised Islamist platform (as the conservative faction gradually seized centre stage), in contrast to its more secular and moderate Pakatan Rakyat component parties.

The “friendly” overture, supposedly to achieve “grand religious and racial unity”, intensified after the passing of PAS’ universally respected spiritual leader, Nik Aziz. The new, religiously militant PAS leadership reciprocated the “friendly” gestures, convinced its creeping theocratic agenda could be carried out more smoothly with the tacit permission, if not active cooperation, of Umno, which then held the reins of government.

Umno’s calculation then was that if PAS could be used to split half of the Malay votes that traditionally went to the opposition parties, for example, in the Malay heartland, then Umno candidates could squeeze through in a first-past-the-post electoral system and win. So, the two rivals from both ends of the political spectrum decided to work hand in hand, for example, in attempting to push through parliamentary approval to expand the powers of the religious courts.

But it turned out to be a miscalculation. In the 14th general election, rather than significantly splitting opposition votes, PAS actually ate into Umno’s previously ironclad voter base, causing the latter to lose by small margins in many three-cornered fights.

The rest, as they say, is history.

But the cold fact remains that if Umno and PAS somehow still retain the electoral support of up to three-quarters of Malay voters nationwide, and are able to coalesce further, for example by putting up a common candidate in future elections, then — at least in principle — they could beat their PH rivals. That was exactly what they attempted to do in the recent Selangor by-elections.

It would appear from the by-election results that when the common candidate was from Umno (Sungai Kandis), the percentage of the combined votes for the two parties dropped compared to the last general election. But when it was a PAS candidate (Sri Setia), then the combined votes increased. The point is, if the two parties were to work more closely, then with Umno’s still sizeable war chest and PAS’ appeal to religiosity, it is possible for them to clinch a victory — albeit more-or-less monoracial — in the next general election.

So, one option for dejected Umno MPs in the more rural constituencies is simply to bide their time. Until then, perhaps the best thing to do is to stay put with the current Umno leadership, which recently obtained a mandate from the senior chieftains to negotiate with other parties to “get back to the centre of power”.

Another political reality, made even more evident in the Sungai Kandis by-election, is that the Umno brand is somewhat “toxic” because of the various scandals it became entangled when it was in power, apart from its recent tilt further to the right to become more fundamentalist.

For many progressive Malaysians, Umno, despite being the largest opposition party, ia hardly a credible replacement for the current government in the future.

Thus, moderate-minded Umno parliamentarians could choose to leave the party and chart their own political paths. That was what former minister of international trade and industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and former foreign minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman did recently. All eyes are on whether charismatic former youth and sports minister Khairy will follow suit.

Then, whether it is true or not, there is the unfolding saga within the PH ranks over Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s eagerness to return to mainstream politics and the country’s leadership as soon as possible by engineering a by-election in Port Dickson and the seeming reluctance of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to accede to such a wish. Some political pundits suggest he is supporting Datuk Seri Azmin Ali as a counterbalance to Anwar.

Anwar and Mahathir have said many times that they will respect the transition deal struck before the general election whereby Anwar will take over as prime minister after two years. Many Umno parliamentarians, however, sense it is not a done deal.

They feel the two will need to gather as much political capital as possible — including the number of supporting MPs — in case of an eventual showdown.

And therein lies yet another option for the numerous Umno MPs — they can associate themselves with one or the other PH faction to prolong their political shelf lives. Choices abound when you are blessed with a seat in parliament.

Dr Oh Ei Sun advises policy institutes in Malaysia and abroad. He was political secretary to the prime minister from 2009 to 2011.

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