This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 14, 2018 - May 20, 2018

JOHOR has been the bastion of Umno from even before independence. The party was formed on “the stairs of Istana Besar” in Johor Baru in 1946 as a united movement against the Malayan Union set up by the British colonial government.

As the base of Umno founder Datuk Onn Jaafar, Johor led the call for merdeka and has been associated with the spirit of Malay nationalism.

That chapter ended with the 14th general election.

For the southern state, the night of May 9 will be remembered for the fall of fortress Johor to the Pakatan Harapan coalition.

PH — made up of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, representing Malay and other bumiputera interests; the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Democratic Action Party; and progressive Islamic Parti Amanah Negara — represents the new political configuration.

How did a state, long dubbed the bastion of Umno and Barisan Nasional, fall in such a dramatic manner to PH?

Have the politics of development and handouts and the appeal to race and religion, which marked BN’s 60-year dominance, lost their hold over the people?

The historic takeover of federal power by PH in GE14 was made possible by the “Malay tsunami” in states like Johor, where the opposition had been known to have had a hard time penetrating in previous elections.

In Johor, out of the 36 state seats won by PH, 22 are Malay-majority or mixed constituencies.

So, what made the Malays of Johor, who had been staunch supporters of Umno in the past, switch sides this time round?

Among other things, it had something to do with the mismatch between the state’s development and unfulfilled promises by the incumbent state government.

While southern Johor was promoted as a new economic corridor for Malaysia, it did not result in a better standard of living for many of its people.

There are still many illegal urban settlements in Johor Baru, although the authorities had been relocating them in recent years. The settlers have been given eviction notices as the land they occupy is needed for the development of high-rise buildings and highways. While these urban settlements used to be the vote bank of Umno, unfulfilled promises to improve their livelihood have been a sore point among the residents.

Also, Johor’s proximity to economic powerhouse Singapore has been a factor.

Many young people in the state have to find employment in the city-state, braving the crawling traffic at the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) complexes at the two border crossings every day.

In the morning, they have to wake up as early as 4am as they have to be at the CIQ by 5am to make it to their workplaces in Singapore in time. Traffic jams at the CIQ sometimes stretches the journey to two to three hours.

After work, they quickly go straight back to the crossings and have to endure another round of massive traffic jams. Sometimes, if they were unlucky and not all the gates are operating, the journey will be even longer.

“They have to bear the traffic congestion in the afternoon sun and in heavy rain, with fumes from their motorcycles permeating the air they breathe. Some of them have fainted while on their bikes,” said Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, the elected representative for Muar.

This issue resonates deeply with many Johor Malays, especially those in the southern economic belt. They feel that this country is their land and the government is led by their own people, yet they have to suffer to find employment in another country.

While Iskandar Malaysia has created more employment opportunities compared with a decade ago, the strong Singapore dollar still attracts young people to cross over.

This sentiment was effectively utilised by PH in its ceramah. Syed Saddiq even came out  a video describing how he grew up without seeing his father very much because he had to work in Singapore.

For many others who chose not to seek employment in Singapore, the high cost of living has been biting them hard. Wages in Malaysia have been more or less stagnant over the past decade, factoring in inflation, while the cost of living has been rising steadily.

As frustration built up, the Malays in the southern region voted overwhelmingly for the opposition.

PH’s Akmal Nasrullah Nasir beat Tan Sri Shahril Abdul Samad in the parliamentary constituency of Johor Baru with a majority of 19,782 votes while Hassan Karim polled 61,615 votes to former Johor menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin’s 36,889 votes in Pasir Gudang.

In Pulai, PH’s Salahuddin Ayub won the parliamentary seat with a majority of 28,924 votes against former deputy home minister Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed. These are mixed seats with a Malay majority and had been held by BN representatives for many years.

In the Malay heartland in northern and central Johor, the largely agricultural economy was hard hit due to a decline in commodity prices. Crude palm oil prices have dropped from a high of almost RM3,500 per tonne late last year to just about RM2,500.

This had reduced their incomes and, with the rising cost of living, made their lives harder. PH managed to tap into this sentiment by offering to abolish unnecessary debt, which had been forced onto FELDA settlers, as part of its 10-part manifesto.

The elderly Malays in the FELDA settlements and kampungs also felt the need for change because their children, who are working in Singapore, Johor Baru, Kuala Lumpur and Penang, are complaining about the low wages and high cost of living.

The swing of Malay votes in northern and central Johor was manifested in the fall of the parliamentary seats of Muar, Ledang, Segamat, Sri Gading and Simpang Renggam to PH, while the coalition managed to retain Pagoh and Batu Pahat.

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