Religion has an immense power over people, so it is not surprising that it has been used throughout history in the interests of the state. Some things never change.

In Malaysia today, the emergence of an Islamic judicial system running parallel to the secular constitutional framework is tending to redefine the country’s socio-cultural and political outlook in deeply significant ways.

The effects of this wave are increasingly being seen in the political arena as the vanguard Islamic party, PAS, and the dominant Malay party, Umno, court each other in the face of serious electoral challenges facing the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition that Umno leads.

A centrepiece of the Islamic governance theme is the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965, often referred to as Act 355, which looks set to create a maelstrom on the national landscape.

Proposed changes to Act 355, which are the subject of the Private Member’s Bill that PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang introduced at the closing of the parliamentary session last year, have created a sharp division between the proponents of constitutional supremacy and those who take the view that Muslims should be governed by syariah criminal law.

Among the plethora of contentious issues that have emerged in the vigorous debate around the Bill, the concern about the conflict between the scope of the Federal Constitution and that of an enlarged Act 355 indicates that the amended Act, if passed by Parliament, would fundamentally alter the secular foundation of the nation’s legal system.

Politically speaking, therefore, the Hadi Bill, as the proposed amendments have been labelled, is a tinderbox that could light up national debate. For parties that thrive on the Muslim vote, it is therefore a powerful theme that can help to strengthen their performance in a crucial general election.

This electoral spinoff helps to explain the eagerness to mobilise a huge showing at the rally in support of the proposed changes to the Act that is scheduled to be held on Feb 18 in Kuala Lumpur.

The run-up to the event, the gathering itself and its follow-up period could produce a generous basket of opportunities for a whole range of political leaders to burnish their Islamic credentials and thereby ensure their popularity come election time.

It is a golden opportunity not to be missed.

Given the significance of the amendments, it is also not surprising that the matter has been taken over by the government and will be presented as a Federal Government Bill for deliberation in the next sitting of the Dewan Rakyat.

With the next general election expected to be held in 2017, although it is only due by Aug 24, 2018, securing the Muslim vote will be a pressing concern for Umno, which must strengthen its electoral performance as the keystone of the BN, in order to sustain the coalition’s political fortunes.

The urgency of this task has been reflected in the growing warmth between Umno and PAS leaders in the past year and more. So critical is the need to unite the Muslim constituents that talk of electoral cooperation between the erstwhile bitter rivals has surfaced, although the possibility of an overt electoral pact has been quickly dismissed.

Despite the pointed objections of Umno’s senior coalition partners — MCA, MIC and Gerakan — to the proposed amendments, the need for strengthening Umno’s electoral base clearly outweighs the impact of a fallout on the BN’s spirit of consensus.

For the political parties in the opposition fold, the Hadi Bill presents a Catch 22 situation. Showing support for the Bill would be anathema for Parti Amanah Negara, a group that splintered from PAS over differing approaches to advancing the Islamic agenda.

In keeping with its Islamic mantle, Amanah had tried to present an alternative to the Hadi Bill in October, but the bid was stillborn as the motion was rejected by the Dewan Rakyat Speaker. As for PKR, which has a predominantly Muslim voter base, it has distanced itself from the proposed amendments, but it cannot push that stance too far without undermining its support base.

Perhaps only former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who leads the opposition-aligned Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, has sought to confound his foes by labelling the Hadi Bill unIslamic, but his contrarian views may be insufficient to derail the Syariah amendments train.

For the DAP, any statement about the Bill has become fodder for its opponents to label its leaders anti-Islamic, which has complicated matters for the opposition coalition’s partners. To add to its problems, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng has been called in for questioning for alleged sedition over a statement in November that the Hadi Bill runs contrary to the Constitution.

The debate over the Bill’s implications can only be expected to get hotter as the year progresses, but whether the Islamic theme will be sufficient to engross the attention of voters remains to be seen.

Certainly, concerns over cost of living issues, the weakening of the ringgit, a muted economic outlook and its implications for employment and consumer sentiment will need to be mitigated before it would be opportune to call for a snap election.

Moreover, the damage from international investigations into the 1MDB scandal can be expected to infect the voters’ mood for some time yet.

On the other side of the scale, voters will be closely watching the opposition’s electoral pact to decide whether it looks steady enough to weather the storms that may be brewing on the horizon.

In the meantime, the Election Commission’s constituency redelineation exercise will soon be due to make its way through Parliament in time for it to be used in the 14th general election.

In addition, well-primed people-centric projects — from free bus services to help with affordable housing to grants for maintenance of public amenities — that are being rolled out to address the needs of the rakyat, all put together, will prove to be powerful incentives for voters to choose the status quo.

With such unassailable advantages from incumbency, a different outcome would certainly be quite an upset.

R B Bhattacharjee is associate editor at The Edge Malaysia

Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.

P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's AppStore and Androids' Google Play.